Utilization Patterns and Projected Demand of Antiretroviral Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background . The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings has greatly increased demand for antiretroviral medicines and raised the importance of good forward planning, especially in the context of the new 2010 WHO treatment guidelines. Methods . Forecasting of the number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2010 to 2012 was produced using three approaches: linear projection, country-set targets, and a restricted scenario. Two additional scenarios were then used to project the demand for various antiretroviral medicines under a fast and slower phase-out of stavudine. Results . We projected that between 7.1 million and 8.4 million people would be receiving ART by the end of 2012. Of these, 6.6% will be on second-line therapy. High variation in forecast includes reductions in the demand for d4T and d4T increases in the demand for tenofovir, emtricitabine followed by efavirenz, ritonavir, zidovudine and lopinavir; lamivudine, atazanavir, and nevirapine. Conclusion . Despite the global economic crisis and in response to the revised treatment guidelines, our model forecasts an increasing and shifting demand for antiretrovirals in resource-limited settings not only to provide treatment to new patients, but also to those switching to less toxic regimens.