Accurate Mobility Modeling and Location Prediction Based on Pattern Analysis of Handover Series in Mobile Networks

The efficient dimensioning of cellular wireless access networks depends highly on the accuracy of the underlying mathematical models of user distribution and traffic estimations. Mobility prediction also considered as an effective method contributing to the accuracy of IP multicast based multimedia transmissions, and ad hoc routing algorithms. In this paper we focus on the tradeoff between the accuracy and the complexity of the mathematical models used to describe user movements in the network. We propose mobility model extension, in order to utilize user's movement history thus providing more accurate results than other widely used models in the literature. The new models are applicable in real-life scenarios, because these rely on additional information effectively available in cellular networks (e.g. handover history), too. The complexity of the proposed models is analyzed, and the accuracy is justified by means of simulation.