A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution | Zendy

Giuseppe Di Biase | Zendy; Guglielmo D’Amico | Zendy; Arturo Di Girolamo | Zendy; Jacques Janssen | Zendy; Stefano Iacobelli | Zendy; Nicola Tinari | Zendy; Raimondo Manca | Zendy

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A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution

Author(s) -

Giuseppe Di Biase,

Guglielmo D’Amico,

Arturo Di Girolamo,

Jacques Janssen,

Stefano Iacobelli,

Nicola Tinari,

Raimondo Manca

Publication year - 2007

Publication title -

mathematical problems in engineering

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.262

H-Index - 62

eISSN - 1026-7077

pISSN - 1024-123X

DOI - 10.1155/2007/65636

Subject(s) - algorithm , computer science , artificial intelligence , machine learning , mathematics

This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as defined by CD4 levels, from a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in state j after a time t given that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in state i; that she/he will survive up to a time t, given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in the starting state up to time t; that she/he reach stage j of the disease in the next transition, if the previous state was i and no state change occurred up to time t. The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users

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