Open AccessA Decision Analysis of Follow-up and Treatment Algorithms for Nonsolid Pulmonary Nodules
Author(s) -
Mark M. Hammer,
Lauren Palazzo,
Andrew Eckel,
Eduardo J. Mortani Barbosa,
Chung Yin Kong
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
radiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.118
H-Index - 295
eISSN - 1527-1315
pISSN - 0033-8419
DOI - 10.1148/radiol.2018180867
Subject(s) - medicine , confidence interval , malignancy , lung , radiology , nodule (geology) , lung cancer , nuclear medicine , paleontology , biology
Purpose To evaluate management strategies and treatment options for patients with ground-glass nodules (GGNs) by using decision-analysis models. Materials and Methods A simulation was developed for 1 000 000 hypothetical patients with GGNs undergoing follow-up per the Lung Imaging Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) recommendations. The initial age range was 55-75 years (mean, 64 years). Nodules could grow and develop solid components over time. Clinically significant malignancy rates were calibrated to data from the National Lung Screening Trial. Annual versus 3-year-interval follow-up of Lung-RADS category 2 nodules was compared, and different treatment strategies were tested (stereotactic body radiation therapy, surgery, and no therapy). Results Overall, 2.3% (22 584 of 1 000 000) of nodules were clinically significant malignancies; 6.3% (62 559 of 1 000 000) of nodules were treated. Only 30% (18 668 of 62 559) of Lung-RADS category 4B or 4X nodules were clinically significant malignancies. The risk of clinically significant malignancy for persistent nonsolid nodules after baseline was higher than Lung-RADS estimates for categories 2 and 3 (3% vs <1% and 1%-2%, respectively). Overall survival (OS) at 10 years was 72% (527 827 of 737 306; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 71%, 72%) with annual follow-up and 71% (526 507 of 737 306; 95% CI: 71%, 72%) with 3-year-interval follow-up (P < .01). At 10 years, OS among patients whose nodules progressed to Lung-RADS category 4B or 4X was 80% after radiation therapy (49 945 of 62 559; 95% CI: 80%, 80%), 79% after surgery (49 139 of 62 559; 95% CI: 78%, 79%), and 74% after no therapy (46 512 of 62 559; 95% CI: 74%, 75%) (P < .01). Conclusion Simulation modeling suggests that the follow-up interval for evaluating ground-glass nodules can be increased from 1 year to 3 years with minimal change in outcomes. Stereotactic body radiation therapy demonstrated the best outcomes compared with lobectomy and with no therapy for nonsolid nodules. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.