A Bayesian Point Process Model for User Return Time Prediction in Recommendation Systems

In order to sustain the user-base for a web service, it is important to know the return time of a user to the service. We propose a Bayesian point process, log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP), to model and predict return time of users. It allows encoding the prior domain knowledge and non-parametric estimation of latent intensity functions capturing user behaviour. We capture the similarities among the users in their return time by using a multi-task learning approach. We show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches on predicting the return time of users to last.fm music service.