Life history effects on hatchery contributions to ocean harvest and natural-area spawning

Hatcheries can support salmon fisheries but also impact natural populations. We model the proportional hatchery contributions to ocean catch, natural-area spawning, and egg production based on hatchery production, maturation, fecundity, and straying. We develop indices of hatchery-origin catch per stray spawner measuring the trade-off between supplementing harvest and limiting natural-area impacts; higher values indicate success in increasing hatchery ocean harvest contributions relative to strays spawning in natural areas. Hatchery fish maturing early lowers catch per stray (and proportion hatchery-origin catch) by shifting the age distributions of both catch and spawners toward younger ages. Age-dependent fecundity may complicate predicted effects of changing maturation schedules. Increased straying does not affect catch but increases hatchery-origin spawning and decreases catch per stray. Differences in hatchery production affect hatchery contributions to both catch and spawning, exacerbating the trade...