Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition Preface List of Figures List of Tables List of Examples Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction 2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment 3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions 5. Refining the Questions 6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts 7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation 8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation 9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel 10. Conducting the Elicitation Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data 12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses 13. Understanding the Data Base Structure 14. Correlation and Bias Detection 15. Model Formation 16. Combining Responses_Aggregation 17. Characterizing Uncertainties 18. Making Inferences Appendix A. SAATY Appendix B. MCBETA Appendix C. EMPIRICAL Appendix D. BOOT Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms References Index.