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Since 2000, cases of the neglected tropical disease Buruli ulcer, caused by infection withMycobacterium ulcerans , have increased 100-fold around Melbourne (population 4.4 million), the capital of Victoria, in temperate southeastern Australia. The reasons for this increase are unclear. Here, we used whole-genome sequence comparisons of 178M. ulcerans isolates obtained primarily from human clinical specimens, spanning 70 years, to model the population dynamics of this pathogen from this region. Using phylogeographic and advanced Bayesian phylogenetic approaches, we found that there has been a migration of the pathogen from the east end of the state, beginning in the 1980s, 300 km west to the major human population center around Melbourne. This move was then followed by a significant increase inM. ulcerans population size. These analyses inform our thinking around Buruli ulcer transmission and control, indicating thatM. ulcerans is introduced to a new environment and then expands, rather than it being from the awakening of a quiescent pathogen reservoir.IMPORTANCE Buruli ulcer is a destructive skin and soft tissue infection caused byMycobacterium ulcerans and is characterized by progressive skin ulceration, which can lead to permanent disfigurement and long-term disability. Despite the majority of disease burden occurring in regions of West and central Africa, Buruli ulcer is also becoming increasingly common in southeastern Australia. Major impediments to controlling disease spread are incomplete understandings of the environmental reservoirs and modes of transmission ofM. ulcerans . The significance of our research is that we used genomics to assess the population structure of this pathogen at the Australian continental scale. We have then reconstructed a historical bacterial spread and modeled demographic dynamics to reveal bacterial population expansion across southeastern Australia. These findings provide explanations for the observed epidemiological trends with Buruli ulcer and suggest possible management to control disease spread.

Comparative Genomics Shows That Mycobacterium ulcerans Migration and Expansion Preceded the Rise of Buruli Ulcer in Southeastern Australia