Modeling the response of pneumonia to antimicrobial therapy

The response to antimicrobial therapy in patients with pneumonia was assessed by using a previously developed pneumonia scoring system. Patients from two different clinical trials were evaluated. The first group (n = 22) was treated with cefmenoxime. For these patients, doses were adjusted to achieve an area under the plasma concentration-versus-time curve (AUC) above the MIC of 140 microg x h/ml and pneumonia response scores were evaluated retrospectively. The second group (n = 21) were treated with either ciprofloxacin (CIP) or ceftazidime (TAZ) in a randomized clinical trial. Here, doses were adjusted to achieve AUC from 0 to 24 h/MIC values that were > 250 SIT(-1) x h (estimate of the area under the curve of inverse serum inhibitory titer versus time) and pneumonia response scoring was concurrent. In both studies eradication of the pathogen was determined by serial endotracheal cultures and clinical parameters were scored daily. A decrease in total score was indicative of an improving clinical condition. The percent change in clinical daily score was determined for each day of treatment. The rate of clinical response was determined by linear regression of the percent change in daily clinical score versus time during the course of antimicrobial therapy. Factors predictive of time to eradication were explored by interval analysis. Logistic regression was used to determine the earliest time point in therapy at which treatment scores predicted outcome. Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance was used for statistical analysis, and significance was accepted at P or = 10% reduction in clinical score after 72 h of treatment had an 88% probability of bacterial eradication. The clinical scoring system is a useful tool for modeling the response of pneumonia to antimicrobial therapy. The ability to predict outcome relatively early in therapy, by using a scoring system of clinical parameters which can be routinely monitored, will aid in assessing the response to antimicrobial therapy in clinical as well as in research settings.