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COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya
Author(s) -
Samuel P. C. Brand,
John Ojal,
Rabia Aziza,
Vincent Were,
Emelda A. Okiro,
Ivy K. Kombe,
Caroline Mburu,
Morris Ogero,
Ambrose Agweyu,
George M. Warimwe,
James Nyagwange,
Henry Karanja,
John N. Gitonga,
Daisy Mugo,
Sophie Uyoga,
Ifedayo Adetifa,
J. Anthony G. Scott,
Edward Otieno,
Nickson Murunga,
Mark Otiende,
Lynette Isabella OcholaOyier,
Charles N. Agoti,
George Githinji,
Kadondi Kasera,
Patrick Amoth,
Mercy Mwangangi,
Rashid Aman,
Wangari Ng’ang’a,
Benjamin Tsofa,
Philip Bejon,
Matt J. Keeling,
D. James Nokes,
Edwine Barasa
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556
H-Index - 1186
eISSN - 1095-9203
pISSN - 0036-8075
DOI - 10.1126/science.abk0414
Subject(s) - transmissibility (structural dynamics) , transmission (telecommunications) , covid-19 , population , socioeconomic status , geography , pandemic , demography , coronavirus , socioeconomics , virology , biology , environmental health , medicine , economics , sociology , physics , telecommunications , disease , vibration isolation , quantum mechanics , pathology , computer science , infectious disease (medical specialty) , vibration
SARS-CoV-2: To have or to have not In June 2021, official records in Kenya showed fewer than 4000 confirmed deaths and 180,000 confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These data tend to reflect the economically advantaged strata of society who can afford smartphones and have access to medical attention and tests. Brandet al . developed an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Kenya, the population of which was split into two socioeconomic strata. The authors predicted that 75% of the Kenyan population (about 39 million people) had been exposed to the virus by June 2021. If a fourth wave of infection is observed in the future, it would likely be driven by a variant with enhanced transmissibility or natural immune escape. —CA

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