An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China | Zendy

Huaiyu Tian | Zendy; Youngjoon Hong | Zendy; Yidan Li | Zendy; ChiehHsi Wu | Zendy; Бин Чэн | Zendy; Moritz U. G. Kraemer | Zendy; Bingying Li | Zendy; Jun Cai | Zendy; Bo Xu | Zendy; Qiqi Yang | Zendy; W Ben | Zendy; Peng Yang | Zendy; Yujun Cui | Zendy; Yimeng Song | Zendy; Pai Zheng | Zendy; Quanyi Wang | Zendy; Ottar N. Bjørnstad | Zendy; Ruifu Yang | Zendy; Bryan T. Grenfell | Zendy; Oliver G. Pybus | Zendy; Christopher Dye | Zendy

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An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Author(s) -

Huaiyu Tian,

Youngjoon Hong,

Yidan Li,

ChiehHsi Wu,

Бин Чэн,

Moritz U. G. Kraemer,

Bingying Li,

Jun Cai,

Bo Xu,

Qiqi Yang,

W Ben,

Peng Yang,

Yujun Cui,

Yimeng Song,

Pai Zheng,

Quanyi Wang,

Ottar N. Bjørnstad,

Ruifu Yang,

Bryan T. Grenfell,

Oliver G. Pybus,

Christopher Dye

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556

H-Index - 1186

eISSN - 1095-9203

pISSN - 0036-8075

DOI - 10.1126/science.abb6105

Subject(s) - china , social distance , covid-19 , psychological intervention , transmission (telecommunications) , geography , socioeconomics , environmental health , pandemic , closing (real estate) , public health , demography , outbreak , medicine , advertising , business , virology , economics , sociology , disease , engineering , finance , nursing , archaeology , pathology , psychiatry , infectious disease (medical specialty) , electrical engineering

The most effective interventions By 23 February 2020, China had imposed a national emergency response to restrict travel and impose social distancing measures on its populace in an attempt to inhibit the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, which measures were most effective is uncertain. Tian et al. performed a quantitative analysis of the impact of control measures between 31 December 2019 and 19 February 2020, which encompasses the Lunar New Year period when millions of people traveled across China for family visits. Travel restrictions in and out of Wuhan were too late to prevent the spread of the virus to 262 cities within 28 days. However, the epidemic peaked in Hubei province on 4 February 2020, indicating that measures such as closing citywide public transport and entertainment venues and banning public gatherings combined to avert hundreds of thousands of cases of infection. It is unlikely that this decline happened because the supply of susceptible people was exhausted, so relaxing control measures could lead to a resurgence. Science , this issue p. 638

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