The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China | Zendy

Moritz U. G. Kraemer | Zendy; Chia-Hung Yang | Zendy; Bernardo Gutiérrez | Zendy; ChiehHsi Wu | Zendy; Brennan Klein | Zendy; David M. Pigott | Zendy; Louis du Plessis | Zendy; Nuno R. Faria | Zendy; Ruoran Li | Zendy; William P. Hanage | Zendy; John S. Brownstein | Zendy; Maylis Layan | Zendy; Alessandro Vespignani | Zendy; Huaiyu Tian | Zendy; Christopher Dye | Zendy; Oliver G. Pybus | Zendy; Samuel V. Scarpino | Zendy

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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Author(s) -

Moritz U. G. Kraemer,

Chia-Hung Yang,

Bernardo Gutiérrez,

ChiehHsi Wu,

Brennan Klein,

David M. Pigott,

Louis du Plessis,

Nuno R. Faria,

Ruoran Li,

William P. Hanage,

John S. Brownstein,

Maylis Layan,

Alessandro Vespignani,

Huaiyu Tian,

Christopher Dye,

Oliver G. Pybus,

Samuel V. Scarpino

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556

H-Index - 1186

eISSN - 1095-9203

pISSN - 0036-8075

DOI - 10.1126/science.abb4218

Subject(s) - china , transmission (telecommunications) , psychological intervention , covid-19 , outbreak , geography , demographics , demography , environmental health , socioeconomics , medicine , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , virology , economics , computer science , archaeology , telecommunications , pathology , psychiatry , sociology

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

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