Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses | Zendy

Margarita Pons-Salort | Zendy; Nicholas C. Grassly | Zendy

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Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses

Author(s) -

Margarita Pons-Salort,

Nicholas C. Grassly

Publication year - 2018

Publication title -

science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556

H-Index - 1186

eISSN - 1095-9203

pISSN - 0036-8075

DOI - 10.1126/science.aat6777

Subject(s) - serotype , coxsackievirus , echovirus , enterovirus , incidence (geometry) , virology , outbreak , herd immunity , biology , immunity , transmission (telecommunications) , immunology , virus , vaccination , immune system , physics , electrical engineering , optics , engineering

Hidden truths of enteroviruses Enteroviruses are important drivers of global health, but few countries undertake enterovirus surveillance. Pons-Salort and Grassly used Japanese surveillance data to model the interplay between the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals, accounting for declining birth and death rates, incomplete surveillance, and seasonality of infection (see the Perspective by Nikolay and Cauchemez). Enteroviruses have highly predictable yet highly nonlinear dynamics. The model also reveals signatures of increased pathogenicity and of antigenic change and transmissibility. Science , this issue p.800 ; see also p.755

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