Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases | Zendy

C. Jessica E. Metcalf | Zendy; Justin Lessler | Zendy

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Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases

Author(s) -

C. Jessica E. Metcalf,

Justin Lessler

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556

H-Index - 1186

eISSN - 1095-9203

pISSN - 0036-8075

DOI - 10.1126/science.aam8335

Subject(s) - infectious disease (medical specialty) , scarcity , public health , biology , risk analysis (engineering) , population , human health , disease , data science , management science , microbiology and biotechnology , environmental resource management , computer science , business , environmental health , medicine , engineering , economics , microeconomics , nursing , pathology

The term "pathogen emergence" encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.

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