Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa | Zendy

Abhishek Pandey | Zendy; Katherine E. Atkins | Zendy; Jan Medlock | Zendy; Natasha Wenzel | Zendy; Jeffrey P. Townsend | Zendy; James E. Childs | Zendy; Tolbert Nyenswah | Zendy; Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah | Zendy; Alison P. Galvani | Zendy

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Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

Author(s) -

Abhishek Pandey,

Katherine E. Atkins,

Jan Medlock,

Natasha Wenzel,

Jeffrey P. Townsend,

James E. Childs,

Tolbert Nyenswah,

Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah,

Alison P. Galvani

Publication year - 2014

Publication title -

science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 12.556

H-Index - 1186

eISSN - 1095-9203

pISSN - 0036-8075

DOI - 10.1126/science.1260612

Subject(s) - quarantine , outbreak , contact tracing , status quo , isolation (microbiology) , transmission (telecommunications) , geography , incidence (geometry) , disease transmission , socioeconomics , covid-19 , environmental health , demography , medicine , virology , political science , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , biology , economics , sociology , law , telecommunications , physics , microbiology and biotechnology , optics , pathology

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

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