Mitigation strategies for airborne disease transmission in orchestras using computational fluid dynamics

The COVID-19 pandemic forced performing arts groups to cancel shows and entire seasons due to safety concerns for the audience and performers. It is unclear to what extent aerosols generated by wind instruments contribute to exposure because their fate is dependent on the airflow onstage. We use transient, second-order accurate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate aerosol concentrations and the associated risk and assess strategies to mitigate exposure in two distinct concert venues. Mitigation strategies involved rearranging musicians and altering the airflow by changing HVAC settings, opening doors, and introducing flow-directing geometries. Our results indicate that the proposed mitigation strategies can reduce aerosol concentrations in the breathing zone by a factor of 100, corresponding to a similar decrease in the probability of infection.