Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity | Zendy

Cristian Proistosescu | Zendy; Peter Huybers | Zendy

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Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity

Author(s) -

Cristian Proistosescu,

Peter Huybers

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

science advances

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 5.928

H-Index - 146

ISSN - 2375-2548

DOI - 10.1126/sciadv.1602821

Subject(s) - climate sensitivity , sensitivity (control systems) , climate change , climate model , mode (computer interface) , climatology , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , computer science , ecology , geology , biology , electronic engineering , engineering , operating system

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack of consensus between estimates based on models and historical observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with model-derived ECS estimates.

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