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The migratory tundra caribou herds in North America follow decadal population cycles, and browsing from abundantcaribou could be expected to counteract the current climate-driven expansion of shrubs in the circumpolar tundrabiome. We demonstrate that the sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has provided a strong signal for climate-inducedchanges on the adjacent caribou summer ranges, outperforming other climate indices in explaining the caribou-plantdynamics. We found no evidence of a negative effect of caribou abundance on vegetation biomass. On the contrary,we found a strong bottom-up effect in which a warmer climate related to diminishing sea ice has increased the plantbiomass on the summer pastures, along with a paradoxical decline in caribou populations. This result suggests thatthis climate-induced greening has been accompanied by a deterioration of pasture quality. The shrub expansion inArctic North America involves plant species with strong antibrowsing defenses.Our results might therefore be an earlysignal of a climate-driven shift in the caribou-plant interaction from a system with low plant biomass modulated bycyclic caribou populations to a system dominated by nonedible shrubs and diminishing herds of migratory caribou

Arctic greening from warming promotes declines in caribou populations