Stochastic dynamic programming: An approach for modelling the population consequences of disturbance due to lost foraging opportunities

Since the introduction of the population consequences of disturbance (PCoD) conceptual model, lost energy has become a central component of modelling biologically meaningful disturbance. Long-term datasets on northern elephant seals of Ano Nuevo, CA and bottlenose dolphins of Sarasota Bay, FL span several environmental disturbances, allowing us to quantify how behavior, physiology, and vital rates change with natural reductions in prey. While complete PCoD models are possible with large datasets, health metrics in particular can be difficult or impossible to collect for many species. In addition, PCoD models to date have assumed the worst-case scenario, in that animals exposed to a disturbance cannot compensate for lost foraging. Combined with knowledge of energetic requirements of individuals, Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) models examine potential compensatory behavioral mechanisms that individuals can employ in the presence of a disturbance. However, SDP bioenergetic models require data on the en...