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Acoustic tomography systems have been deployed in Fram Strait over the past decade to complement existing observing systems there. The observed acoustic arrival patterns are unusual, however, consisting of a single, broad arrival pulse, with no discernible repeating patterns or individual ray arrivals. The nature of these arrivals is caused by vigorous acoustic scattering from the small-scale processes that dominate ocean variability in Fram Strait. Simple models for internal wave and mesoscale variability were constructed and tailored to match the variability observed by moored thermisters in Fram Strait. The internal wave contribution to variability is weak. Acoustic propagation through a simulated ocean consisting of a climatological sound speed plus mesoscale and internal wave scintillations obtains arrival patterns that match the characteristics of those observed, i.e., pulse width and travel time variation. The scintillations cause a proliferation of acoustic ray paths, however, reminiscent of "ray chaos." This understanding of the acoustic forward problem is prerequisite to designing an inverse scheme for estimating temperature from the observed travel times.

On the effects of small-scale variability on acoustic propagation in Fram Strait: The tomography forward problem