Risk-Adaptive Set-Based Design and Applications to Shaping a Hydrofoil

The paper presents a framework for set-based design under uncertainty and demonstrates its viability through designing a super-cavitating hydrofoil of an ultra-high spee d vessel. The framework achieves designs that safely meet requirements as quantified precisely by superquantile measures of risk (s-risk) and reduces the complexity of design u nder uncertainty. S-risk ensures comprehensive and decisio ntheoretically sound assessment of risk and permits a decoupling of parametric uncertainty and surrogate (model) uncertainty. The framework is compatible with any surrogate building technique, but we illustrate it by developing for t he first time risk-adaptive surrogates that are especially tai lored to s-risk. The numerical results demonstrate the framework in a complex design case requiring multi-fidelity simulatio n.