Open AccessNew insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real‐time
Author(s) -
Catalli Flaminia,
Chan ChungHan
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical journal international
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.302
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1365-246X
pISSN - 0956-540X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05276.x
Subject(s) - coulomb , range (aeronautics) , a priori and a posteriori , statistical physics , tectonics , thrust , geology , physics , computer science , seismology , quantum mechanics , engineering , electron , philosophy , epistemology , thermodynamics , aerospace engineering
SUMMARY The Coulomb model for stress change estimation is considered one of the most powerful physics‐based forecasting tools, even though its calculations are affected by uncertainties due to the large number of a priori assumptions needed. The aim of this paper is to suggest a straightforward and reliable strategy to apply the Coulomb model for real‐time forecasting. This is done by avoiding all dispensable assumptions, thus reducing the corresponding uncertainties. We demonstrate that the depth at which calculations are made is a parameter of utmost importance and apply the Coulomb model to three sequences in different tectonic regimes: Umbria‐Marche (normal), Landers (strike‐slip), and Chi–Chi (thrust). In each case the results confirm that when applying the Coulomb model: (i) the depth of calculation plays a fundamental role; (ii) depth uncertainties are not negligible; (iii) the best forecast at a given location is obtained by selecting the maximum stress change over the whole seismogenic depth range.