Open AccessTesting earthquake forecasts using reliability diagrams
Author(s) -
Holliday J. R.,
Gaggioli W. J.,
Knox L. E.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical journal international
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.302
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1365-246X
pISSN - 0956-540X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05274.x
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , statistic , forecast verification , computer science , reliability engineering , statistics , forecast skill , mathematics , engineering , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY Reliability diagrams are a standard forecast evaluation tool for comparing forecasted probabilities of binary events with their observed frequencies. To make this comparison for rare events, forecasts of similar probability are grouped together. Here, we demonstrate the utility of reliability diagrams for earthquake forecast evaluation with an application to a modified version of the Holliday et al. time‐dependent earthquake forecasting method. We quantify reliability with a χ 2 statistic and find that the forecasting method is consistent with reliability; that is, forecast probabilities match rates of occurrence to within the expected uncertainties.