Open AccessDecision‐theoretic limits on earthquake prediction
Author(s) -
Matthews Robert A. J.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
geophysical journal international
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.302
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1365-246X
pISSN - 0956-540X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06596.x
Subject(s) - earthquake prediction , geology , basis (linear algebra) , action (physics) , seismology , computer science , mathematics , physics , geometry , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY I apply Decision Theory to the question of how accurate earthquake predictions must be to serve as a reliable basis for action. Even with optimistic estimates of the parameters involved, the lower bound on the required accuracy is extraordinarily demanding, being over 10 times higher than that of current meteorological forecasts. Given the abruptly self‐organizing nature of earthquakes, it is extremely unlikely that precursors can attain such levels of accuracy. I therefore conclude that prediction of major earthquakes is, in any practical sense, impossible.