Inelastic models of lithospheric stress‐11. Implications for outer‐rise seismicity and dynamics

SUMMARY Outer‐rise seismicity and dynamics are examined using inelastic models of lithospheric deformation, which allow a more realistic characterization of stress distributions and failure behaviour. We conclude that thrust‐ and normal‐faulting outer‐rise earthquakes represent substantially different states of stress within the oceanic lithosphere. Specifically, the normal‐faulting events occur in response to downward plate bending, which establishes the ‘standard’, bending‐dominated state of outer‐rise stress, and the thrust‐faulting events occur in response to an elevated level of in‐plane compression, which develops only in response to exceptional circumstances. This interpretation accounts for the observation that normal‐faulting outer‐rise earthquakes occur more frequently and are more widely distributed than their thrust‐faulting counterparts, an observation for which the simple bending model offers no explanation. In addition, attributing both thrust‐ and normal‐faulting outer‐rise earthquakes to plate bending implies that both classes of events should occur within relatively close lateral proximity to one another because both are allegedly a manifestation of the same bendingdominated stress distribution, whereas, in reality, this is not observed. We propose that the tendency for thrust‐faulting outer‐rise earthquakes to exhibit greater source depths than their normal‐faulting counterparts (an observation that is frequently cited in support of the bending interpretation of the former) is merely a consequence of the fact that bending‐induced tension is confined to the upper lithosphere. Our model predicts that outer‐rise in‐plane‐force variations may promote thrust‐faulting outerrise activity prior to an underthrusting interplate subduction earthquake and normalfaulting outer‐rise activity following such an earthquake, but that both forms of outerrise activity are unlikely to be associated with the same subduction earthquake. A corollary implication of our model is that subduction earthquakes are likely to be either preceded by or followed by an absence of large outer‐rise earthquakes. Levels of in‐plane compression necessary to generate thrust‐faulting outer‐rise earthquakes are attributed to stress concentrations within the subducting plate that are induced by relatively localized resistance to regionally distributed plate‐driving forces. Resistance of this nature may result from either the attempted subduction of relatively buoyant (i.e. isostatically compensated) bathymetric features or the existence of strong interplate asperities.