Open AccessAn example of seismic occurrence modelling by a several‐state random process
Author(s) -
Bottari A.,
Caccamo D.,
Neri G.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
geophysical journal international
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.302
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1365-246X
pISSN - 0956-540X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-246x.1992.tb00855.x
Subject(s) - microearthquake , geology , seismology , poisson distribution , anomaly (physics) , generalization , sequence (biology) , tectonics , statistical physics , mathematics , statistics , induced seismicity , physics , mathematical analysis , condensed matter physics , biology , genetics
SUMMARY A statistical model of the microearthquake occurrence in the Messina area, assuming periodic transitions among several Generalized Poisson states, is proposed. Four states are defined, of different duration, cluster mean rate and earthquake interdependence level. Their sequence is cyclically repeated with annual period. The findings of this work can be seen as a generalization of the approach of Bender (1984) who considered transition phenomena of the seismic temporal pattern among distinct states of the Simple Poisson type. Further, the investigation aims at identifying possible factors leading to the observed periodic changes in the earthquake statistical parameters and to the main ‘deviations’ of experimental data from the model. The rainfall and regional tectonic stress patterns appear to be reasonable candidates for explaining the microearthquake periodicity and the most relevant anomaly of the observed seismic temporal pattern with respect to the model, respectively.