Open AccessLong‐range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor
Author(s) -
Rhoades D. A.,
Evison F. F.
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
geophysical journal of the royal astronomical society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.302
H-Index - 168
eISSN - 1365-246X
pISSN - 0016-8009
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-246x.1979.tb02552.x
Subject(s) - earthquake prediction , bayesian probability , range (aeronautics) , magnitude (astronomy) , event (particle physics) , joint probability distribution , computer science , econometrics , prior probability , statistics , data mining , artificial intelligence , seismology , geology , mathematics , engineering , physics , quantum mechanics , astronomy , aerospace engineering
Summary. For a long‐term predictor from which a joint distribution of earthquake occurrence time and magnitude has been obtained, and also a record of past successes, false alarms and failures, Bayesian statistical methods yield predictive information of the kind needed as a basis for decision‐making on precautionary measures. The information is presented in terms of risk refinement, intensity probability and success probability. After the event the relative likelihood that a prediction was a success or failure can be estimated. Comparisons can also be made of the performance of different forecasting models. The application of these methods is illustrated by an example based on the proposed swarm‐magnitude predictor.