Open AccessOil Discoveries, Shifting Power, and Civil Conflict
Author(s) -
Bell Curtis,
Wolford Scott
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
international studies quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.897
H-Index - 100
eISSN - 1468-2478
pISSN - 0020-8833
DOI - 10.1111/isqu.12150
Subject(s) - leverage (statistics) , shadow (psychology) , spanish civil war , power (physics) , economics , argument (complex analysis) , civil conflict , political economy , revenue , rendering (computer graphics) , armed conflict , government (linguistics) , political science , law , finance , psychology , physics , biochemistry , chemistry , computer graphics (images) , linguistics , philosophy , quantum mechanics , machine learning , computer science , psychotherapist
Can the discovery of petroleum resources increase the risk of civil conflict even before their exploitation? We argue that it can, but only in poorer states where oil revenues threaten to alter the balance of power between regimes and their opponents, rendering bargains in the present obsolete in the future. We develop our claims via a game‐theoretic model of bargaining between a government and a rebel group, where decisions over war and peace occur in the shadow of increasing oil wealth that both increases national wealth and shifts relative power in the government's favor. To test the model's main hypothesis, we leverage data on newly discovered oil deposits as an indicator of the state's expected future power resources. Our argument has important implications for the literature on credible commitments, power shifts, and violent conflict.