Open AccessRainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico
Author(s) -
Hunter Lori M.,
Murray Sheena,
Riosmena Fernando
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
international migration review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.109
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1747-7379
pISSN - 0197-9183
DOI - 10.1111/imre.12051
Subject(s) - livelihood , emigration , diversification (marketing strategy) , geography , climate change , development economics , natural resource , adaptive strategies , developing country , coping (psychology) , human migration , natural resource economics , socioeconomics , economic growth , population , economics , ecology , business , agriculture , sociology , biology , psychology , demography , archaeology , marketing , psychiatry
In many rural regions of developing countries, natural resource dependency means changes in climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When environmentally‐based livelihood options are constrained, migration can become an important adaptive strategy. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we model U.S. emigration from rural communities as related to community, household and climate factors. The results suggest that households subjected to very recent drought conditions are less likely to send a U.S. migrant, but in communities with drought two years prior and with strong migration histories, emigration is much more likely. In regions lacking such social networks, rainfall deficits actually reduce migration propensities, perhaps reflecting constraints in the ability to engage in migration as a coping strategy. Policy implications emphasize diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change.