Third Parties and the Arab‐Israeli Conflict: Poliheuristic Decision Theory and British Mandate Palestine Policy

What role do third parties play in the A rab‐ I sraeli conflict, and to what extent do domestic political constraints shape this role? Answering these questions has important ramifications for understanding the interplay between domestic and international politics. One useful tool to conduct this research is the two‐stage decision‐making framework, P oliheuristic ( P h) D ecision T heory, which eliminates options from the choice set that do not meet domestic political requirements. This paper applies P h theory to a case study from the conflict's infancy, the B ritish decision in 1922 to affirm the policy of a J ewish national home (based on the B alfour D eclaration 1917) despite violent A rab opposition. It argues that the decision was based solely on domestic political needs and did not attempt to address tensions in P alestine. It concludes that P h theory provides a highly effective theory of decision‐making for assessing motivations and policy decisions of third parties in the A rab‐ I sraeli conflict.