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Corrupt Bookmaking in a Fixed Odds Illegal Betting Market
Author(s) -
Bag Parimal Kanti,
Saha Bibhas
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
the economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.683
H-Index - 160
eISSN - 1468-0297
pISSN - 0013-0133
DOI - 10.1111/ecoj.12483
Subject(s) - contest , odds , enforcement , suspect , economics , favourite , law and economics , advertising , business , actuarial science , criminology , political science , law , sociology , computer science , logistic regression , machine learning
Illegal betting in a two‐team sports contest is studied with player sabotage instigated by a monopolist bookmaker. Whereas punters hold beliefs about the teams’ winning chances correlated with Nature's draw, the bookmaker's information is noise‐free. Enforcement investigates with a higher probability, the greater the upset. In such an environment, if punters do not suspect match‐fixing, the favourite is bribed, thus creating upsets and intensifying subsequent investigations. Match‐fixing continues to hold even when punters are rational, provided that the bookie's beliefs are noisy: the bookie bribes the team he thinks is the favourite and the bettors bet on their perceived favourites.

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