Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums | Zendy

Trautmann Stefan T. | Zendy; Kuilen Gijs | Zendy

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Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums

Author(s) -

Trautmann Stefan T.,

Kuilen Gijs

Publication year - 2015

Publication title -

the economic journal

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 4.683

H-Index - 160

eISSN - 1468-0297

pISSN - 0013-0133

DOI - 10.1111/ecoj.12160

Subject(s) - race (biology) , horse , horse racing , psychology , social psychology , sociology , gender studies , biology , paleontology

We pit non‐incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two‐player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method. Beliefs from incentivised methods are better predictors of participants' own behaviour compared to introspection. However, introspection performs equally well as the truth serums in terms of accuracy and additivity. We also find that correction for risk aversion improves the additivity of scoring rule belief reports.

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