Do trade‐offs between predation pressures on females versus nests drive nest‐site choice in painted turtles?

Predation strongly influences reproductive behaviours because reproducing individuals must balance mortality risks to themselves and to their offspring. In many freshwater turtles, the nest predation risk decreases with nest distance from water, whereas the predation risk to females increases farther from water. To determine whether predation pressure influences the distance from water at which female turtles nest, we measured predation pressure on nesting females and on nests, as well as the distances of nests to water, in two populations of painted turtles. Using models, we found that female survival in both populations was high and did not vary with distance from water. Nest survival was also uncorrelated with nest distance to water, although it was significantly lower than adult survival in both populations and was only 1.2% in one population. Our results suggest that nest sites are not predictably safe from predators. Instead, turtles may hedge their bets by nesting over a wide range of distances from water because any distance is risky for nests and no distance is particularly risky for the nesting female. We suggest that other factors, such as suitable incubation conditions and/or post‐emergence hatchling survival, probably play a larger role than predation in driving nest‐site choice in painted turtles.