Open AccessFiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC
Author(s) -
Artis Michael,
Marcellino Massimiliano
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
the econometrics journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.861
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1368-423X
pISSN - 1368-4221
DOI - 10.1111/1368-423x.00051
Subject(s) - pooling , economics , econometrics , preference , track (disk drive) , government (linguistics) , computer science , microeconomics , linguistics , philosophy , artificial intelligence , operating system
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.