Scale Evolution of Electric Vehicles: A System Dynamics Approach | Zendy

Yue Xiang | Zendy; Hao Zhou | Zendy; Wei Yang | Zendy; Junyong Liu | Zendy; Yi Niu | Zendy; Jiahui Guo | Zendy

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Scale Evolution of Electric Vehicles: A System Dynamics Approach

Author(s) -

Yue Xiang,

Hao Zhou,

Wei Yang,

Junyong Liu,

Yi Niu,

Jiahui Guo

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

ieee access

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.587

H-Index - 127

ISSN - 2169-3536

DOI - 10.1109/access.2017.2699318

Subject(s) - aerospace , bioengineering , communication, networking and broadcast technologies , components, circuits, devices and systems , computing and processing , engineered materials, dielectrics and plasmas , engineering profession , fields, waves and electromagnetics , general topics for engineers , geoscience , nuclear engineering , photonics and electrooptics , power, energy and industry applications , robotics and control systems , signal processing and analysis , transportation

Electrification of transportation has drawn increasing attention for the sake of low-pollution emission and high-fuel economy. Scientific scale forecasting of electric vehicles (EVs) is fundamental to promote EVs’ integration for transportation and electric power industries. To capture the evolution pattern, a system dynamics (SD) approach is proposed to simulate and forecast the scale of the EVs. The proposed SD model can integrate various factors and quantify their relationship by comprehensive reasoning. Causal loop diagrams are designed to describe the relationship between factors and variables, and their quantifications are formulated by different business models and surveys. The main procedure for simulation includes survey, problem analysis, variable definition, feedback analysis, and model building. The effectiveness of the SD approach is verified by case studies. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the key factors, such as fuel price, subsidy policy, and so on, is also conducted.

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