Development of a Statistical Model for Estimating Spatial and Temporal Ambient Ozone Patterns in the Sierra Nevada, California

Statistical approaches for modeling spatially and temporally explicit data are discussed for 79 passive sampler sites and 9 active monitors distributed across the Sierra Nevada, California. A generalized additive regression model was used to estimate spatial patterns and relationships between predicted ozone exposure and explanatory variables, and to predict exposure at nonmonitored sites. The fitted model was also used to estimate probability maps for season average ozone levels exceeding critical (or subcritical) levels in the Sierra Nevada region. The explanatory variables--elevation, maximum daily temperature, and precipitation and ozone level at closest active monitor--were significant in the model. There was also a significant mostly east-west spatial trend. The between-site variability had the same magnitude as the error variability. This seems to indicate that there still exist important site features not captured by the variables used in the analysis and that may improve the accuracy of the predictive model in future studies. The fitted model using robust techniques had an overall R2 value of 0.58. The mean standard deviation for a predicted value was 6.68 ppb.