Predicting queue wait time probabilities for multi-scale computing

We describe a method for queue wait time prediction in supercomputing clusters. It was designed for use as a part of multi-criteria brokering mechanisms for resource selection in a multi-site High Performance Computing environment. The aim is to incorporate the time jobs stay queued in the scheduling system into the selection criteria. Our method can also be used by the end users to estimate the time to completion of their computing jobs. It uses historical data about the particular system to make predictions. It returns a list of probability estimates of the form ( t i ,  p i ), where p i is the probability that the job will start before time t i . Times t i can be chosen more or less freely when deploying the system. Compared to regression methods that only return a single number as a queue wait time estimate (usually without error bars) our prediction system provides more useful information. The probability estimates are calculated using the Bayes theorem with the naive assumption that the attributes describing the jobs are independent. They are further calibrated to make sure they are as accurate as possible, given available data. We describe our service and its REST API and the underlying methods in detail and provide empirical evidence in support of the method's efficacy. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale’.