Chance, necessity and the origins of life: a physical sciences perspective

Earth's 4.5-billion-year history has witnessed a complex sequence of high-probability chemical and physical processes, as well as ‘frozen accidents’. Most models of life's origins similarly invoke a sequence of chemical reactions and molecular self-assemblies in which both necessity and chance play important roles. Recent research adds two important insights into this discussion. First, in the context of chemical reactions, chance versus necessity is an inherently false dichotomy—a range of probabilities exists for many natural events. Second, given the combinatorial richness of early Earth's chemical and physical environments, events in molecular evolution that are unlikely at limited laboratory scales of space and time may, nevertheless, be inevitable on an Earth-like planet at time scales of a billion years. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Reconceptualizing the origins of life’.