z-logo
open-access-imgOpen Access
Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change
Author(s) -
Douglas G. MacMartin,
Ken Caldeira,
David W. Keith
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
philosophical transactions of the royal society a mathematical physical and engineering sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.074
H-Index - 169
eISSN - 1471-2962
pISSN - 1364-503X
DOI - 10.1098/rsta.2014.0134
Subject(s) - climate change , geoengineering , environmental science , limit (mathematics) , global temperature , software deployment , global warming , atmospheric sciences , representative concentration pathways , mean radiant temperature , phase change , climatology , climate model , physics , thermodynamics , computer science , mathematics , ecology , geology , mathematical analysis , biology , operating system
Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a tool that might reduce damage from anthropogenic climate change. Analysis often assumes that geoengineering would be used to maintain a constant global mean temperature. Under this scenario, geoengineering would be required either indefinitely (on societal time scales) or until atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sufficiently reduced. Impacts of climate change, however, are related to the rate of change as well as its magnitude. We thus describe an alternative scenario in which solar geoengineering is used only to constrain the rate of change of global mean temperature; this leads to a finite deployment period for any emissions pathway that stabilizes global mean temperature. The length of deployment and amount of geoengineering required depends on the emissions pathway and allowable rate of change, e.g. in our simulations, reducing the maximum approximately 0.3°C per decade rate of change in an RCP 4.5 pathway to 0.1°C per decade would require geoengineering for 160 years; under RCP 6.0, the required time nearly doubles. We demonstrate that feedback control can limit rates of change in a climate model. Finally, we note that a decision to terminate use of solar geoengineering does not automatically imply rapid temperature increases: feedback could be used to limit rates of change in a gradual phase-out.

The content you want is available to Zendy users.

Already have an account? Click here to sign in.
Having issues? You can contact us here
Accelerating Research

Address

John Eccles House
Robert Robinson Avenue,
Oxford Science Park, Oxford
OX4 4GP, United Kingdom