Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics | Zendy

Suani T. R. Pinho | Zendy; Cláudia Pio Ferreira | Zendy; L. Esteva | Zendy; Florisneide Rodrigues Barreto | Zendy; V. C. Morato e Silva | Zendy; Maria Gloria Lima Cruz Teixeira | Zendy

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Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Author(s) -

Suani T. R. Pinho,

Cláudia Pio Ferreira,

L. Esteva,

Florisneide Rodrigues Barreto,

V. C. Morato e Silva,

Maria Gloria Lima Cruz Teixeira

Publication year - 2010

Publication title -

philosophical transactions of the royal society a mathematical physical and engineering sciences

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.074

H-Index - 169

eISSN - 1471-2962

pISSN - 1364-503X

DOI - 10.1098/rsta.2010.0278

Subject(s) - dengue fever , basic reproduction number , transmission (telecommunications) , population , dengue hemorrhagic fever , biology , demography , virology , dengue virus , computer science , telecommunications , sociology

In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995-1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, Λ, and the basic reproductive number, R(0), for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R(0) and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito.

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