Meta-analytic evidence for quantitative honesty in aposematic signals

The combined use of noxious chemical defences and conspicuous warning colours is a ubiquitous anti-predator strategy. That such signals advertise the presence of defences is inherent to their function, but their predicted potential for quantitative honesty—the positive scaling of signal salience with the strength of protection—is the subject of enduring debate. Here, we systematically synthesized the available evidence to test this prediction using meta-analysis. We found evidence for a positive correlation between warning colour expression and the extent of chemical defences across taxa. Notably, this relationship held at all scales; among individuals, populations and species, though substantial between-study heterogeneity remains unexplained. Consideration of the design of signals revealed that all visual features, from colour to contrast, were equally informative of the extent of prey defence. Our results affirm a central prediction of honesty-based models of signal function and narrow the scope of possible mechanisms shaping the evolution of aposematism. They suggest diverse pathways to the encoding and exchange of information, while highlighting the need for deeper knowledge of the ecology of chemical defences to enrich our understanding of this widespread anti-predator adaptation.