The survival–reproduction association becomes stronger when conditions are good

Positive covariations between survival and reproductive performance (S–R covariation) are generally interpreted in the context of fixed or dynamic demographic heterogeneity (i.e. persistent differences between individuals, or dynamic variation in resource acquisition), but the processes underlying covariations are still unknown. We used multi-event modelling to investigate how environmental and individual features influence S–R covariation patterns in a long-lived seabird, the Monteiro's storm petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi ). Our analysis reveals that a strong positive association between individual breeding success and subsequent survival occurs only when conditions are favourable to reproduction (in favourable years, in high-quality nests and in nest-faithful breeders). This finding reflects differences in the main causes of breeding failure and mortality under favourable and unfavourable conditions, which in turn lead to distinct patterns of S–R covariation. We suggest, in particular, that resource-related sources of demographic heterogeneity do not generate a strong S–R covariation, in contrast with hidden and unpredictable sources of variation.