Routes to global glaciation

Theory and observation suggest that Earth and Earth-like planets can undergo runaway low-latitude glaciation when changes in solar heating or in the carbon cycle exceed a critical threshold. Here, we use a simple dynamical-system representation of the ice–albedo feedback and the carbonate–silicate cycle to show that glaciation is also triggered when solar heating changes faster than a critical rate. Such ‘rate-induced glaciations’ remain accessible far from the outer edge of the habitable zone, because the warm climate state retains long-term stability. In contrast, glaciations induced by changes in the carbon cycle require the warm climate state to become unstable, constraining the kinds of perturbations that could have caused global glaciation in Earth’s past. We show that glaciations can occur when Earth’s climate transitions between two warm stable states; this property of the Earth system could help explain why major events in the development of life have been accompanied by glaciations.