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The objective in materials or structure design has been to maximize the mean strength. However, as generally agreed, engineering structures, such as bridges, aircraft or microelectromechanical systems must be designed for tail probability of failure less than 10−6 per lifetime. But this objective is not the same. Indeed, a quasibrittle material or structure with a superior mean strength can have, for the same coefficient of variation, an inferior strength at the less than 10−6 tail. This tail is unreachable by histogram testing. So, one needs a rational theory, physically based and experimentally verified indirectly, which is feasible by size effect. Focusing on the results at the writer's home institution, this inaugural article (written three years ex post facto) reviews recent results towards this goal, concerned with quasibrittle materials such as concretes, rocks, tough ceramics, fibre composites, bone and most materials on the micrometer scale. The theory is anchored at the atomic scale because only on that scale the failure probability is known—it is given by the frequency of breakage of bonds, governed by the activation energy barriers in the transition rate theory. An analytical way to scale it up to the macroscale representative volume element (RVE) has been found. Structures obeying the weakest-link model are considered but, for quasibrittle failures, the number of links, each corresponding to one RVE, must be considered as finite. The result is a strength probability distribution transiting from Weibullian to Gaussian, depending on the structure size. The Charles-Evans and Paris laws for subcritical crack growth under static and cyclic fatigue are also derived from the transition-rate theory. This yields a size-dependent Gauss–Weibull distribution of lifetime. Close agreement with numerous published test data is achieved. Discussed next are new results on materials with a well-defined microscale architecture, particularly biomimetic imbricated (or staggered) lamellar materials, exemplified by nacre, a material of astonishing mean strength compared to its constituents. This architecture is idealized as a diagonally pulled fishnet, which is shown to be amenable to an analytical solution of the strength probability distribution. The solution is verified by million Monte Carlo simulations for each of the fishnets of various shapes and sizes. In addition to the classical weakest-link and the fibre-bundle models, the fishnet is found to be the third strength probability model that is amenable to an analytical solution. The nacreous architecture is shown to provide an additional major (greater than 100%) strengthening at the 10−6 failure probability tail. Finally, it is emphasized that the most important consequence of the quasibrittleness, and also the most effective way of calibrating the 10−6 tail, is the size effect on the mean structural strength, which permeates all formulations.

Design of quasibrittle materials and structures to optimize strength and scaling at probability tail: an apercu