Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK | Zendy

Bobby He | Zendy; Sheheryar Zaidi | Zendy; Bryn Elesedy | Zendy; Michael Hutchinson | Zendy; Andrei Paleyes | Zendy; Guy Harling | Zendy; Margaret Johnson | Zendy; Yee Whye Teh | Zendy

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Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK

Author(s) -

Bobby He,

Sheheryar Zaidi,

Bryn Elesedy,

Michael Hutchinson,

Andrei Paleyes,

Guy Harling,

Margaret Johnson,

Yee Whye Teh

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

royal society open science

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84

H-Index - 51

ISSN - 2054-5703

DOI - 10.1098/rsos.201491

Subject(s) - contact tracing , context (archaeology) , isolation (microbiology) , covid-19 , quarantine , psychological intervention , trace (psycholinguistics) , computer science , resource (disambiguation) , tracing , test (biology) , medicine , geography , infectious disease (medical specialty) , biology , disease , computer network , ecology , bioinformatics , linguistics , philosophy , archaeology , pathology , psychiatry , operating system

We use an individual-level transmission and contact simulation model to explore the effectiveness and resource requirements of various test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, in the context of different scenarios with varying levels of stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Based on modelling results, we show that self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of their household contacts has a substantial impact on the number of new infections generated by each primary case. We further show that adding contact tracing of non-household contacts of confirmed cases to this broader package of interventions reduces the number of new infections otherwise generated by 5–15%. We also explore impact of key factors, such as tracing application adoption and testing delay, on overall effectiveness of TTI.

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