Open AccessExtinction debt in local habitats: quantifying the roles of random drift, immigration and emigration
Author(s) -
Yongbin Wu,
Youhua Chen,
Shui-Ching Chang,
You-Fang Chen,
TsungJen Shen
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
royal society open science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84
H-Index - 51
ISSN - 2054-5703
DOI - 10.1098/rsos.191039
Subject(s) - extinction debt , emigration , biological dispersal , extinction (optical mineralogy) , habitat , biodiversity , ecology , immigration , disturbance (geology) , habitat destruction , species richness , local extinction , abundance (ecology) , geography , biology , population , demography , paleontology , archaeology , sociology
We developed a time-dependent stochastic neutral model for predicting diverse temporal trajectories of biodiversity change in response to ecological disturbance (i.e. habitat destruction) and dispersal dynamic (i.e. emigration and immigration). The model is general and predicts how transition behaviours of extinction may accumulate according to a different combination of random drift, immigration rate, emigration rate and the degree of habitat destruction. We show that immigration, emigration, the areal size of the destroyed habitat and initial species abundance distribution (SAD) can impact the total biodiversity loss in an intact local area. Among these, the SAD plays the most deterministic role, as it directly determines the initial species richness in the local target area. By contrast, immigration was found to slow down total biodiversity loss and can drive the emergence of species credits (i.e. a gain of species) over time. However, the emigration process would increase the extinction risk of species and accelerate biodiversity loss. Finally but notably, we found that a shift in the emigration rate after a habitat destruction event may be a new mechanism to generate species credits.