On the prior distribution of extinction time | Zendy

Andrew R. Solow | Zendy

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On the prior distribution of extinction time

Author(s) -

Andrew R. Solow

Publication year - 2016

Publication title -

biology letters

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.596

H-Index - 110

eISSN - 1744-957X

pISSN - 1744-9561

DOI - 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0089

Subject(s) - extinction (optical mineralogy) , biology , context (archaeology) , bayesian probability , bayesian inference , inference , distribution (mathematics) , ecology , computer science , paleontology , artificial intelligence , mathematics , mathematical analysis

Bayesian inference about the extinction of a species based on a record of its sightings requires the specification of a prior distribution for extinction time. Here, I critically review some specifications in the context of a specific model of the sighting record. The practical implication of the choice of prior distribution is illustrated through an application to the sighting record of the Caribbean monk seal.

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