It is optimal to be optimistic about survival | Zendy

John M. McNamara | Zendy; Pete C. Trimmer | Zendy; Alasdair I. Houston | Zendy

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It is optimal to be optimistic about survival

Author(s) -

John M. McNamara,

Pete C. Trimmer,

Alasdair I. Houston

Publication year - 2012

Publication title -

biology letters

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.596

H-Index - 110

eISSN - 1744-957X

pISSN - 1744-9561

DOI - 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0010

Subject(s) - biology , organism , natural selection , distribution (mathematics) , selection (genetic algorithm) , ecology , genetics , computer science , mathematics , mathematical analysis , artificial intelligence

We investigate the optimal behaviour of an organism that is unable to obtain a reliable estimate of its mortality risk. In this case, natural selection will shape behaviour to be approximately optimal given the probability distribution of mortality risks in possible environments that the organism and its ancestors encountered. The mean of this distribution is the average mortality risk experienced by a randomly selected member of the species. We show that if an organism does not know the exact mortality risk, it should act as if the risk is less than the mean risk. This can be viewed as being optimistic. We argue that this effect is likely to be general.

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