Open AccessWhat Really Is a Concentrated HIV Epidemic and What Does It Mean for West and Central Africa? Insights From Mathematical Modeling
Author(s) -
MarieClaude Boily,
Michael Pickles,
Michel Alary,
Stefan Baral,
James Blanchard,
Stephen Moses,
Peter Vickerman,
Sharmistha Mishra
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.162
H-Index - 157
eISSN - 1944-7884
pISSN - 1525-4135
DOI - 10.1097/qai.0000000000000437
Subject(s) - transmission (telecommunications) , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , demography , population , percentile , medicine , geography , virology , environmental health , immunology , statistics , mathematics , computer science , sociology , telecommunications
HIV epidemics have traditionally been classified as "concentrated" among key populations if overall HIV prevalence was below 1% and as "generalized" otherwise. We aimed to objectively determine the utility of this classification by determining how high overall HIV prevalence can reach in epidemics driven by unprotected sex work (SW) and how estimates of the contribution of SW to HIV transmission changes over time in these epidemics.