Ageing with HIV in South Africa | Zendy

Jan A. C. Hontelez | Zendy; Mark N. Lurie | Zendy; MarieLouise Newell | Zendy; Roel Bakker | Zendy; Frank Tanser | Zendy; Till Bärnighausen | Zendy; Rob Baltussen | Zendy; Sake J. de Vlas | Zendy

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Ageing with HIV in South Africa

Author(s) -

Jan A. C. Hontelez,

Mark N. Lurie,

MarieLouise Newell,

Roel Bakker,

Frank Tanser,

Till Bärnighausen,

Rob Baltussen,

Sake J. de Vlas

Publication year - 2011

Publication title -

aids

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.195

H-Index - 216

eISSN - 1473-5571

pISSN - 0269-9370

DOI - 10.1097/qad.0b013e32834982ea

Subject(s) - human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , medicine , microsimulation , antiretroviral treatment , antiretroviral therapy , demography , developing country , population , population ageing , gerontology , pediatrics , environmental health , virology , viral load , economic growth , sociology , transport engineering , engineering , economics

We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.

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